Jean-Claude Trichet has characterized as "absurd" the hypothesis that circulates the Greece o the euro area output, tensions ha e remained ibrant markets. Pressed on the subject, the President o the European Central Bank (ECB) has pro ided that the institution would not change its rules relating to the assets made by the banks or cash (the "collateral") " or a country in particular".
The degradation o the note by the Greece by the agencies indeed threaten the borrowing o State o the country no longer be eligible or the ECB rom 2011 re inancing operations, which could ha e serious consequences in terms o access to markets.
In addition, Jean-Claude Trichet has published the day be ore a se ere enough note, in response to a Greek Bill or the restructuring o the debt o companies and pro essionals. "The ECB argues that this project could ha e an impact on the inancial stability o the other States o the European Union", said Ciaran O'Hagan, in Société Générale.
The CDS on its highest le els
This noise was not to roll back the ears. Nor that the publication by the Greece o part o its plan to reduce the de icit to three years (see page 8). The Greek 10-year rate lew abo e 6 or the irst time since a year. The di erence with the per ormance o the German debt was now 274 points. In other words, the Greece must pro ide a surplus o 2.74 compared to the Germany pay to raise debt maturity 10 years. CDS (credit de ault swap") is e ol ing e en on its highest historical le els, 340 basis points, according to CMA Data ision. The market belie es that the Greece has more than one chance in i e to ailure to here in i e years, according to the TOS. "credit de ault swaps" akin to contracts o insurance against bankruptcy. "Le els are aberrant and make di icult whether short term how the market will e ol e," judge Patrick Jacq at BNP Paribas. "But the risk currently taken into account in the markets is not consistent with the Outlook may be considered by the end o the year."
Se eral strategists recommend elsewhere to purchase Greek, whereas they are sur endus. Natixis team made this bet and a ours also this year the Ireland, the Italy, the Austria and the Netherlands, on a series o criteria including the budgetary situation, the policy and the high relati e cost o paper. Citigroup strategists ensure that bad news are already included in the price o the obligations o the Greece and the Ireland. In the compartment o the pupils o the euro area, the Netherlands, the Austria and the inland should better escape than the Germany or the rance, according to them, because o their inancial situation. On the other hand, the Spain and the Portugal should see their risk premium increase. Yesterday, the per ormance o the Portuguese State in 10 years borrowing tended rom 10 basis points. In estors reacting to somewhat negati e comments o Moody's on the country, as well as the noise around the Greece.
The year 2010 is announced as that o a strong di erentiation between the so ereign debt. In addition to concerns about the quality o signature by the States, the market will ha e to deal with olatility and liquidity that are probably also ideal that currently.