Un azed, Barack Obama has de eloped last night in Washington, the results o its irst 100 days, in his third press con erence tele ised in "prime time". A "sans- aute". Despite the outbreak o swine lu, who yesterday made its irst atal ictim in Texas, and a growth igure worse than expected in the second quarter ( 6.1 in annualized rate), the Democratic President can boast o ha ing spent the cap smooth. Better: the rallying surprise Republican Senator rom Pennsyl ania, Arlen Specter, will enable him to obtain the magic number o 60 seats which guarantees him to push his agenda o re orms to the Congress. E en i the economic climate remains thankless and uncertain bank stabilization plan, it is a success more than symbolic or the 44th President o the United States.
"I want to belie e that Senator Arlen Specter's decision re lects the recognition that this administration is open to rom many points o iew and we started to take the right direction in the hundred days", welcomed yesterday Barack Obama. or the Democratic President, whose opening strategy had hardly been success ul success so ar, it is a re enge more than symbolic alling, e en i Senator Specter has warned that it would not be "automatic 60th ote". Despite a se ere recession and a combination o crisis ( inancial, automobile, health...) without precedent or a term beginning, Barack Obama e en bolstered his support in American opinion, with a 68 appro al rate (compared to 62 in ebruary). A ter the ote on its reco ery plan o 800 billion in ebruary, Congress should gi e the inal green light to the 2010 budget, which pro ides a record de icit o 1.750 billion yesterday (12.3 o GDP) in the 2009 iscal year closed at September 30, reduced to 1.170 billion in 2010.
Despite his personal will be intact and pay "hyperacti ity" politically, Barack Obama aced uncertainties on the economic ront and to di use criticism on the strength o his team. Despite a reco ery o pri ate consumption ( 2.2) in the irst quarter, the new signi icant decline in GDP ( 6.1 against a orecast o 4.7 o the consensus), and the acceleration o the rise in unemployment (8.5 in March) may cast doubt on the realism o orecasts o the Go ernment (1.2 in 2009 and 3.2 in 2010). Largely based on the assumption o a beginning o reco ery in the third quarter, the plan Obama or creation o 3 million jobs o er two years may pro e ragile or continuation o the recession.
In addition to the substanti e concerns on the dri t o the public de icit which will a ect the structural re orms in the ield o health and energy, it is mainly on the strength o the stabilization plan banking ocus today critics.
A departure " or example".
As the Obama administration pro ed energetic on the ront o the automoti e crisis by demanding the immediate departure o the pattern o GM, Rick Wagoner, and imposing a precise ramework or negotiations between Chrysler and iat, as hesitation o the Treasury on the plan o redemption o "toxic assets" or the conduct o the "stress tests" are still large doubt on the stabilization o the U.S. banking sectorconsidered a key to the resumption by the ed.
The banking plan will be a test o the relationship o Barack Obama with the Congress. With a balance o 130 billion rom the Troubled Asset Relie Program (TARP), Treasury has only limited means to bail out America's banks, whose capital requirements will be announced May 4 in the results o "stress tests". A ter ha ing sacked the head o GM, Obama administration may require the departure rom that o Bank o America, Ken Lewis, " or example". But Congress has already warned that he was more willing to bail out Wall Street at any price.