Relie . In announcing riday, growth o 0.7 in the third quarter, as well as a decline in in lation in October and a slight rebound in exports in September, Insee delighted the Go ernment. Be ore e en the o icial publication o the igures, the Minister o economy and inance, Thierry Breton, welcomed on Europe 1 "the tremendous surge o the rench economy". The pattern o Bercy and with him, the Go ernment eagerly statistics con irm the reco ery they announced, in ain, or months. "This new was expected", he obser ed.
The second quarter had the e ect o a cold shower, with GDP up by 0.1 while the growth in the irst quarter was, inally, 0.3, compared to 0.4, according to Insee. The result o the third quarter is allowed on Bercy with e en more o relie that it pro ides at least 1.5 growth or the year 2005, or the bottom o the o icial orecast (1.5 to 2). Abo e all, the components o this rebound allow Bercy to announce ourth quarter "not bad at all". Regardless o the le el, it will be, howe er, insu icient to be closer to 2. But this could, at least, gi e momentum expected to begin 2006 on a pace consistent with the orecast o 2 to 2.5.
"A" trend"o reboot".
The components o the growth in the third quarter will be not disclosed that riday. But it is already certain she wished particularly to household consumption. Despite a changing still relati ely un a ourable employment and purchasing power, the rench were indeed highly consumed. "Since one year, changes in GDP are highly dependent on consumption pro ile, itsel largely EBIT impacted by sa ings beha iour changing", note Jean-Marc Lucas, Economist at BNP Paribas. E en i the de icit continues to widen and towards an absolute record at end o 2005, exports are still, in mo ing a little more Asian markets, with strong growth. The re lux o the euro has restored air to exporters.
Thierry Breton, who had pre iously allowed with caution "early estimates" o quarterly growth, has this time, "the sense o a robust reco ery. "We are on a"trend"reboot", pro ides the Minister o the economy. I unemployment continues to decline at a steady pace, household con idence should also impro e. In estment, including the trend in the third quarter will be looked at with a magni ying glass, could start.
Uncertainties on the Germany
Howe er, during the our years, speculation on uture growth ha e been oiled with astonishing regularity... Especially, the rance is not only to his ate. Economic policy to be conducted in Germany (read page 10), our largest trading partner, remains hea y uncertainty or the rench economy. An increase in AT German might, indeed, curb domestic demand, because on our exports. Howe er, said Thierry Breton, "nothing is worse than paralysis" that swept the Germany since the legislati e elections.
More oil price and parity entering, returned to le els that are less concern, it is today the monetary European policy which concern the Go ernment. Be ore a ew journalists, the Minister o economy and inance multiplied the implicit messages in the European direction o the Central Bank, so that it did not sti le in the egg up ragile growth rates: "in lation is ully contained, there is no training on wages and the euro is at a proper le el", he said he supported the positionsimilar, taken last week by the Eurogroup. Read the words o the Go ernor o the Bank o rance, Christian Noyer (read page 5), he was not sure that the appeal be heard.