On the e e o the publication o the igures or the gross domestic product (GDP) American or the ourth quarter o 2005, the inter eners appeared reluctant to take new positions in the oreign exchange market.
E en orders o durable goods are ailed to change in a signi icant way. Howe er, they ha e higher expectations. They indeed grew 1.3 in December 2005 in the United States, compared to 1 ad ance.
The pace o the pre ious month was re ised upwards, to 5.4 against 4.4 originally estimated. In addition, weekly claims or unemployment bene its were ewer than expected, 283.000 records against 300,000 anticipated.
oltage o yields
Ne ertheless. In terms o exchange rates, the euro, which e ol ed in a range between 1,2231 dollar and 1,2270 dollar prior to the publication o these data, is ne ertheless managed to stay within this range o luctuation. Later in the day, the single currency was quoted at 1,2220 dollar. Against the Japanese currency, the dollar ad anced to 0.60, to 116,37 yen.
On the ront o the State loans, the trend was the oltage o yields, the image o the rate to 10 American years, an increase o 4 basis points, 4,517.
The rate in 30 years was 4,705 and 2 years at 4,482.
Rate increases to
The le el o orders or durable goods in the United States "suggests that in estment spending remain robust in the irst and the second quarters o 2006, rein orcing our iew that the US gross domestic product growth should exceed expectations", commented James Knightley, at ING. With weekly claims, these two data gi e more weight, according to them, the scenario o a ederal Reser e under its rates yet twice. or the time being, the market table a irst gesture as early as next Tuesday, at the last meeting chaired by Alan Greenspan. The second gesture is not unanimous.
"With the conclusions o the last beige book o the ederal Reser e, which represented a strong growth in the manu acturing sector, and the annual re iew o the purchasing managers indices, which in late the le el o the index in December 2005, these data pro ide more the impression that the industrial sector o the economy is growing at the beginning o the year 2006".", thus pro iding a power ul tailwind which should pro ide a gross domestic product abo e the long-term trend in the irst hal ", also belie es Richard Iley, at BNP Paribas.
But stakeholders clearly would not yield to optimism. They will disco er this a ternoon the igures or us gross domestic product or the ourth quarter o 2005. Expectations are a net deceleration o the growth o 4.1 in the third quarter to 2.8.
The e olution o personal consumption, or its part, care ully discussed, and the prices, economic growth e ects and measures e ects prices abo e expectations as to eed expectations o higher rates, thus the dollar.
Meeting o the ederal Reser e
The next e ent key or the greenback will then be the meeting o the ederal Reser e. There is indeed no question or the market that the institution will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5. But it is more the tone o his release and that o the speech by Ben Bernanke, the successor to Alan Greenspan, be ore the US Congress, ebruary 15, which will determine the trend o the dollar. "I the statement suggests that it is the last rate hike, the dollar will be particularly ulnerable", predicted Niels Christensen, strategist at Société Générale. or the latter, only o new expectations o the rate or the end o March could signi icantly strengthen the US currency. In any e ent, Niels Christensen is not the dollar pushing the euro below $ 1.20.