Concerns about the American housing market weigh on the dollar. Yesterday, the greenback slipped to the second session running, with number o currencies, including the euro. The euro so high until 1,3727 dollar, be ore mo ing to 1.3708 dollar in the e ening.
Operators ear that the crisis o American risky mortgages ("sub-prime") ampli ies the real estate downturn in the United States and strongly inhibits the growth o the country. Already, US household consumption decelerates. According statistics published yesterday, their consumption expenditure is increased, as expected, by 0.1 in June, compared with 0.6 in May. "The slowdown in the housing market, re lected by a decrease in the price o housing, weighs on the purchasing power o households." "The increase in the price o oil has also ha e grow to consume less," says Marie - Pierre Ripert, Economist at Natixis.
Under the e ect o the real estate crisis, the US growth slows. "I the recent inancial turbulence to ha e a signi icant impact, it will be in the United States." "Today, us growth appears as the weakest global growth", consider the economists o the Crédit Agricole, be ore adding: "i consumers wilt, it is insured or the US economy recession."
While the "subprime" crisis has resurrected the spectre o a crisis o the inancial system, on a background o liquidity downs, she threaten the US economy head-on.
O the ed rate cut
In this challenging context, operators are gi en to build on a decline o interest rates o US ederal Reser e, at the end o this year or early 2008, based on their expectations on the utures markets. And ce as in lationary tensions appear to be reduced in the United States. or a ter igures published yesterday, the "dé lateur" estimates o consumption, the a orite o Ben Bernanke index, increased by 0.1 in June, or 1.9 o er a year, decelerating or the ourth time in a row. "On bottom o slow growth and risk o crisis, the ed now has a greater margin o manoeu re to loosen its rate at the end o the year", said Marie-Pierre Ripert o Natixis.
"Historical examples demonstrate that e ery inancial crisis serious the American Central Bank decreased interest rates," recall, or their part, makers o Aurel Le en. One o the examples that is closest to the current situation, according to them, is the bankruptcy o the LTCM und in 1998. With the sinking o the und, which resulted in a serious crisis on the credit market and a decrease in liquidity a ailable to the banks, which could more und on inancial markets, the ed had cut three times rates, between September and No ember. The situation is howe er not ully comparable, are quick to add the strategists o Aurel Le en, global growth currently remaining high in contrast to 1998. On the other hand, i the conditions o access to credit is tightening, on the credit market risk premiums are ar rom ski to their 1998 le el, indicate the strategists o the Société Générale, and the results o the businesses are strong.
The European economy appears, or the moment, most rom the shaking associated with the "subprime". Growth remains strong, and the European Central Bank continues, it to tighten monetary policy. Its Board o Go ernors, which meets tomorrow, should meet again its interest rates, to 4.25, in September, expect operators, waiting or a signal to that e ect, possibly as early as tomorrow. In this context, "the euro should continue to rise against the dollar", said Hans Redeker, responsible or the strategy changes in BNP Paribas.