The moderate tone adopted by the reser e ederal American at the end o its last monetary policy Committee has reassured the markets. There ore, they should be able to put an end to the cycle o two months o decline that he come to li e. or the time being, the two port olios o re erence de eloped by the management company CPR Asset Management or "Les echos", course bear the trace o this episode. The two asset allocations, the oldest as the most recent displayed behind their array o initial walk, consequence o market liquidity and in lationary pressure. End o June, the oldest, de eloped port olio in place in 1992 with 20 o rench shares, International shares 40 and 40 in bonds rench, thus accuses a decrease o 1.7 since the beginning o the year, which brings back its annualized progress o er ten years to 8.1, signi icantly below the 8.9 nominal median pro itability expected by the proponents o the model with an assumption o 3 per year.
The penalty is e en more ob ious to the most recent port olio. The latter, opened in 1999, with 30 o the euro area, 35 shares, International shares and 35 in the euro area bonds is de alued is 1.9 since the beginning o 2006 and annualized since the original progression is decelerated to 4.4, ar rom the 9.3 pro itability expected model o er ten years with in lation o 2 per year. But this port olio still has two and a hal years to get back in line with its objecti es.
Less abundant liquidity
Since the stall on May 11, equity markets ha e redisco ered the olatility and in estors are again concerned about the problems o low. In act, actions were three years leader o alternati e long term o er bond in estments and monetary assets. The poor per ormance o the cash positions and the risk o rising long rates led in estors to ocus on the actions in a period marked by o erabundant liquidity. "This idyllic period ends with the anticipation o the end o the accommodati e monetary policy in the United States and the Japan", note Cyrille Collet, Director o the management shares among PRL Asset Management. or him, the joint action o American and Japanese central banks will lead to a strong reduction o global liquidity. The situation o the companies is healthy with a still satis actory earnings growth but need now to adjust within capti e lows to equity markets, mainly to emerging markets.
Howe er many undraising are planned in the coming months on those same markets, particularly in Russia with Rosne t and Gazprom in estment this summer, then those o Sistema, T 3, óñ? ë, TB, KMC and Sual by end 2006. In total, it is more than $ 30 billion that will ha e to absorb the Russian market this year, compared to the 43 billion dollars placed on the European market. "In a context o appetite or risk more than moderate, it is likely that the e iction and substitution e ects are in place", continues Cyrille collar, that these in estments are likely "to drain momentarily global liquidity in an en ironment already little carrier."
In these conditions, in estors are likely to continue the repatriation o their assets to de eloped markets including the recent decline well impro ed the le el o de elopment. But in a more olatile rede enu context, it will be more attenti e to the proper assessment o the couple "per ormance and risk" that requires now less a ourable liquidity conditions.