The crisis o the CPE was there ore not. Lacking, so that the table is ull, the matter o State. It is done. Is not yet known the ins and outs o the Clearstream case, particularly complex and unclear, but the stench he exhales do promise nothing good: the air o suspicion plays in ull. To speak clearly in this case where nothing is clear: the Minister o the Interior Nicolas Sarkozy suspect Prime Minister Dominique de illepin to ha e launched an in estigation against him and perhaps e en o plotting a conspiracy against him to pre ent him rom candidate to the presidential election o 2007.
Justice in estigation. The judges are at the gates o Matignon. Matignon Cree in turn to manipulation. The war o the lines is total and unprecedented iolence. "They are thinking o two wrestlers that roll together to the abyss," exclaims the UD Jean-Louis Bourlanges. Nothing new, say some. The right has always lo ed competitions bleeding. 1981: Chirac betrays Giscard and sa es Mitterrand; 1988: Giscard and Leotard undermine the campaign o Raymond Barre. 1995: Chirac and Balladur is gut, the war is within the RPR... The approach o each presidential, the smell o powder spread and cheap shots lower. 1979: Giscard case o des de o de; 1995: the case o Schuller-Marechal; 2001: the case o the Chirac air tickets...
Nothing new, so this close as since 2002 and the se ere blow o wake-up call on 21 April, crises a ter another crisis in a ery close look: crisis o con idence with the "no" to the re erendum on Europe. crisis o integration with the iolence in the suburbs, social misunderstanding with the CPE crisis and crisis politico-morale today. Within a year, this much on the shoulders o a President who, in the train where will things, risk o accused o becoming the gra e digger o a regime that its political label instead to de end.
The purposes o reign are always tragic: power isolates, successors rap at the door, the oters want to change. E erything becomes more di icult, but in our years, Jacques Chirac committed three errors which ha e not only added to the predictable malaise.
The irst, is it ha e not been able to take ad antage o the quinquennium. The quinquennium, established or the irst time in 2002 under the combined pressure o Lionel Jospin and aléry Giscard d'Estaing, it was the promise o a reno ation. "The rance change." It changes quickly. "The quinquennium pro ide new energy to our institutions," promises Jacques Chirac rallying to this operation that deeply antagonizes the Gaullists, but which has the ad antage o the possibility o a second term. In act o new energy, nothing comes.
The head o State has not understood that by aligning the presidential term on the legislati e tempo, it is the logic o the system he had upset. inish President monarch, place in the team captain that stimulates and reports. On the contrary, Jacques Chirac remains claquemuré in his castle. And when he speaks, it is o ten too late or next to the plate. Quinquennium, it was made to mo e, Act, pursuant to the rance with the world as it is.
Instead it has become a long agony, one o the longest in the history o the i th Republic. Long, the agony o Jean-Pierre Ra arin in the a termath o the de eat o the regional elections o 2004. Long, that o Dominique illepin in the a termath o the crisis o the CPE. "A year yet", to say today the political actors alarmed by the length o the decomposition.
The second error, related to the irst, is the absence o clear cap. And there are the 2002 ictory conditions which are at issue. Jacques Chirac was elected a ter collecting 19.8 o the otes cast in the irst round and 82,21 in the second. Between the two towers, the country has been depri ed o debate because the opponent was Jean-Marie Le Pen. Since then, it sought in ain a line. Jacques Chirac might ha e been more himsel assuming a policy radical-socialiste worn by a Go ernment o national unity. "I ha e heard and I understood what the rench and the rench ha e said." "What unites them between them is much more power ul than can di ide them," he said on the night o his re-election.
But the temptation o the union opposed the bipolarization at work since the 1970s and it hit head-on project, worn by Alain Juppe, to realize, inally, the union o the lines: the UMP was ormed in the wake o the presidential election with a clear purpose: to end the endemic di isions between the RPR, the UD and the Liberals, and allow the President to ha e a real presidential majority.
It was another schema which had its own logic, but our years later, it can only measure the extent o the ailure. The President's Party escaped to the head o State into the hands o Nicolas Sarkozy; the UD has been reduced but not bounded, that rançois Bayrou became one o the iercest attorneys graduate scheme. O er the line, it has remained behind the lens o "modernization o the country", unde inable, both policy luctuated, with the electoral setback (regional, European and European re erendum), between the Liberal temptation and the downturn on the State, the appeal o large o shore and patriotic exaltation.
The third error, the hea ier, was installed in 2005, the war o succession within the Go ernment. Diehard opponents, the number one Dominique de illepin and number two Nicolas Sarkozy certainly today ha e a common interest: that the right would not explode. Otherwise the two major recipients in 2007 will be the le t and the extreme right. The le t who still su ers rom ha ing resol ed its di isions. The extreme right, with the re orm ailed o CPE, enjoys a a ourable breeding ground: "right, once more, breached authority", rumored to the ears o disappointed oters. On a background o political decomposition the e ect can be pest. The right has no interest in sel -destruction. It is there ore possible that the Go ernment remains in place, the in ernal duo cohabiting again some time, they are trying to hard to go ern e en one year. But a year why With what legitimacy
Institutionally, the Prime Minister and the President o the Republic already lost the game: Dominique de illepin will not remain in O ice or as much as most the support. Gold, which controls the majority The Minister o the Interior, because he is the patron o the UMP. Nicolas Sarkozy has already orced Dominique de illepin to bend on the case o the SCE. It maintains today with the Clearstream a air. That a President o party may so Act, it is the return to the regime o the parties, this one that de Gaulle castigating and ought. This is why the current crisis directly calls the President o the Republic. It is his authority but also its design o the regime who are now in question.